captioning made possible by johnson & johnson, where quality products for the american family have been a tradition for generations good morning. i'm charles osgood and this is sunday morning. two days to go until election day. and pollsters and analysts this weekend are busy crunching the numbers while statisticsian prefer confident that their computer models will carry the day, some old school political hands are saying not so fast. the human element still has its role.

which method of projecting the race holds the greater promise of success? martha teichner will be surveying the field in our sunday morning cover story. >> it can add 2,000 separate additions in one second. >> reporter: what do this 1950s computer and this blogger on a laptop have in common? >> look, i'm a geek. i want to get at the truth. >> reporter: 60 years apart, they've both found themselves in the middle of controversies over how to predict the outcome of presidential elections. >> well, we try not to overwhelm people too much with information. >> reporter: nate silver and the univac, later this sunday morning. >> osgood: comic actor jack black is not on the ballot this coming tuesday, but in hollywood there's already talk that his most recent role just may put him in the running for the industry's highest honor. this morning, lee cowan will vis jack black. >> reporter: this is the jack

black we're used to seeing. not this jack black. >> it was a risk. i didn't know how people would feel about me as a murderer, you know. usually i'm playing a soft and cuddly. >> reporter: jack black rocks a totally different and some say potentially oscar-worthy role later on sunday morning. >> osgood: the coming attraction at one world famous theater is aimd at an audience far beyond its walls and headed for a theater near you. anthony mason take us back stage. >> reporter: when he came up with the idea of broadcasting the metropolitan opera live to movie theaters around the world, peter gelb wanted to cover opera like an olympic event. what were you thinking? >> i was thinking that opera needs a shot in the arm. >> reporter: it's working. nearly three million people

watched last season. ahead on sunday morning, inside the met. >> osgood: it's the unresolved riddle that casts a shadow over the white house. was he or was he not born in the usa? mo rocca is determined to find the answer. >> reporter: the rumors persist: was the president actually born in the u.s.? if he wasn't, what does that say about president chester allen arthur? who did you think i was talking about? ahead on sunday morning, the other birth place mystery that won't die. >> osgood: serena altschul tells us the time seems right for a wrist watch revival. david edelstein reviews the new film about abraham lincoln. child survivors of sandy tell steve hartman the lessons they learned and more. but first the headlines for this sunday morning, the fourth of november, 2012. it's been seven days since super storm sandy made land fall along

the northeast coast. some areas of the region, life is getting back to normal. but as correspondent ben tracy reports, many people still lack electric power and are in desperate need of fuel and other necessities. >> reporter: in northern new jersey, gas is being rationed. even number licensed plates one day; odd, the next. heavy lifting along the jersey shore in bellmar where they are cleaning up and pumping flood waters back into the atlantic. on new york's statten island, anger is growing. despite the controversial cancellation late friday of the new york city marathon which was set for today. >> there are other things that are more pressing than a marathon. >> everybody is forgetting about us. >> reporter: 90% of the new york subway system is expected to be running today. and lights are on in most of manhattan. yet in tom's river, new jersey, frank and anita donnelly are are

enduring their seventh day without electricity or hot water. >> i see a lot of this happening in different parts of the country. i think, oh, they'll make it. until it happens to you and it takes everything out of you. >> reporter: in neighborhoods like this one hard hit by the storm, you either have people who are now displaced from their homes in shelters or they're in damaged homes trying to ride this out with no electricity and no heat. that is getting harder by the day because temperatures at night are now falling into the low 30s. of course there's an election coming on tuesday. the state of new jersey just announced that some of those people who are displaced by the storm can vote by email. charlie. >> reporter: ben tracy in new jersey, thank you, ben. on this final weekend before the election, president obama is teaming up on the campaign trail with former president bill clinton. last night in bristow, virginia, they attended a rally of more than 24,000 people. mr. clinton vouched to the president's economic plan saying mr. obama had done a good job with a bad hand.

governor mitt romney is also logging campaign miles this weekend. yesterday in the battle ground state of new hampshire, he criticized president obama for urging americans to vote as, quote, the best revenge. romney encouraged his supporters to vote for love of country instead. two atlanta police officers were killed last night when their low-flying helicopter crashed near a busy intersection. the officers were part of a team searching for a missing child. the child later turned up unharmed. egypt's coptic church has a new hope. the selection process unfolded this morning during a televised ceremony in cairo. the ship was named a cop tick patriarch after a blindfolded altar boy drew his name out of a chalice. now for the weather, cool up north. rainy down south. and calm out west. in the days ahead, a mid-week storm could bring rain and perhaps some snow to the northeast. the forecast elsewhere is mostly sunny and clear. >> all of them are negative.

osgood: next... i'm going to ask you questions about the ads when it's done. >> osgood: ... we poll the pollsters. and

after crumbling the numbers our cbs news polling unit currently shows president obama looking narrowest a lead over challenger mitt romney. it could change over the next three days, of course. the promise and peril of high-tech vote prediction was

first demonstratedded live on our air back in 1952. as martha teichner reminds us now in our sunday morning cover story. >> good evening, everyone. this is walter cronkite speaking to you from cbs television election headquarters, here in new york city. >> reporter: it wasn't just the first coast-to-coast broadcast of a presidential election and walter cronkite's first time anchoring on election night. it was the first time a computer was used to project the winner. >> this is the face of a univay. reporter: laughable now, ground-breaking then. >> univac, can you tell us what your prediction is now on the basis of the returns we've had so far? i don't know. i think that univac is an honest machine, a good deal more honest than a lot of commentators working. he doesn't think he has enough to tell us anything about. >> reporter: but the computer did have something to say. with not even 3.5 million votes

counted, he predicted 100-to-1 odds of an eisenhower victory in a landslide so huge it seemed impossible given what had been thought to be a close race. the results were with held for several hours. cbs and the machine's makers fearing humiliation. but univac was right. the war between the statheads and the pundits had begun. fast forward 60 years to 2012. >> we have a 75% favorite, in fact, to win in the electoral college. less than that in the popular vote. >> reporter: and we have "new york times" blogger nate silver's prediction of an obama win on tuesday, no matter what the popular vote. >> politics is full of people who are trained to manipulate the way that we view information. so when they see information that they don't like and it's based on a computer program that

was designed four years ago said everyday they're going to become very, very upset. they can't manipulate what my computer says. >> reporter: is this another univac moment or a stat-head, headed for a fall? the election tuesday, how many more posts. nate silver has become the numbers geek. pundits love to hate him. particularly republican pundits. >> nate silver says this is a 73.6% chance that the president is going to win. >> reporter: that was joe scarborough, former republican congressman, on ms-nbc's morning joe last week. >> anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a toss-up right now, they're jokes. >> reporter: silver argues that the race is tight. >> romney surged in the polls. he now holds a slight lead. >> reporter: but not a toss-up. he calls his blog 538 because that's the total number of electoral college votes.

a presidential candidate has to get at least 270 electoral votes to win. no other number really matters. ansilver's computer model says obama is ahead in the states capable of delivering that magic 270, namely ohio, wisconsin, nevada, and iowa. so how does this model work? >> so every poll that people read about goes into the model and sees the projection in some way. >> reporter: there might be 30 or 40 of them a day in this year's poll-happy universe. silver's model averaging all those polls and then factors in how well they've performed in past elections and he comes up with probabilities like gambling odds. >> florida, for example, we had romney with a 60% chance of winning. that's how often when you have a one-point lead in the average of polls you've wound up winning in

the past. in ohio we have obama with about a 75% chance of winning because he has a larger lead so it's more likely to be enduring on election day itself. >> i'm projecting that you need to win 99 games in order to make it to the post office. >> reporter: think money ball, the book and film about how a geek used numbers to outdo the oakland a's scouts using their intuition to find undervalued baseball players who could win. in other words, the stat-heads versus the pundits again. nate silver started out as a baseball statistician before moving on to politics. his new book "the signal and the noise" describes his theories. in the 2008 election, silver called 49 out of 50 states right. tell me what the difference between the kind of poll that cbs does and the sort of process that nate silver goes through.

>> well, i think those are very different annals. >> reporter: sarah dut onis director of surveys for cbs news. the polls cbs news conducts along with his polling partner the "new york times" are among those fed into nate silver's model. >> what we do is more of a snapshot in time than a prediction of an election outcome. it's a very different kind of thing. we ask people, if the election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for? but really most of our polls are about things that are not horse-race related but maybe candidate-related and give you really some insight into sort of the mind of the electorate. >> reporter: here are cbs's most recent poll results. >> a very close race, 48% for president obama. 47% for mitt romney. just a one-point lead for the president. that is within the poll's margin of error. >> reporter: meaning obama and romney essentially neck and neck at the end of that race. what nate silver does is use his model to say president obama is

75 to 80% more likely than mitt romney to cross the finish line first. and that's what makes him controversial. >> nate has gotten very good reviews from people who have studied his methodology. but just like a clock, even the most inaccurate pollster gets it right from election to election and, just like a clock, even the most accurate people will get it wrong from time to time. >> here's the deal. reporter: frank luntz is a g.o.p. strategist and a cbs news consultant. >> mitt romney's pollster has his reputation that mitt romney will win this election that they're going to win ohio and many of these key states and that the published polls are wrong. >> reporter: you're absolutely convinced that obama is going to win the electoral college vote. >> no. i'm convinced if offerd either money i would be happy to bet on obama. i would, you know, a pretty good prize to bet on romney.

2 to 1 wouldn't do it for me. 3 to 1 might. >> reporter: so who or what to believe? in the 7-11 coffee cup vote, right in the last three elections, obama is ahead 59 to 41%. obama halloween masks outsold romney masks 63 to 37%. the mask poll has been right since 1996. if this any gauge of the tightness of the race in family circle magazine first lady cookie contest, michelle obama's whielt-and-dark chocolate chip cookies squeaked by ann romney's m&m cookies by 287 votes out of more than 9,000. >> romney's poll numbers in ohio has surged. >> the latest gallup poll shows... >> reporter: to quota horrible journalistic cliche, only time will tell.

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or your money back. ♪ mile after mile, to and from ♪ now there are four for all to use ♪ ♪ tell the neighbors, friends, everyone the news ♪ ♪ and let's hum, hum, hum, hum ♪ ♪ let's hum ♪ a prius for everyone ♪ there's a bigger one, if you want more space ♪ ♪ a small one if the city's your place ♪ ♪ and even one you can plug in ♪ so hop on in and give one a spin ♪ ♪ and let's hum, hum, hum, hum ♪ ♪ let's hum ♪ a prius for everyone >> osgood: now a look at hurricane sandy and its after math by the numbers. at its height the storm system was roughly 1,000 miles across. at land fall in southern new jersey, sandy's barometric pressure stood at just

146millibars, the second lowest of any hurricane to hit north of cape hatteras. only the 1938 hurricane was lower. the highest storm surge was 14.6 feet at bergen point, new jersey. maximum rainfall was 12.55 inches in the town of easton, maryland. the highest recorded wind was 139 miles per hour at the top of mt. washington in new hampshire. hundreds of miles to the north. the storm has killed more than 100 people across the eastern united states. that's in addition to at least 69 people killd earlier in the caribbean. at sandy's worst, 8.5 million homes and businesses were left without electric power. more than 20,000 airline flights were canceled because of sandy. cost estimates for the storm range between 30 and 50 billion

dollars making it the second most expensive in u.s. history. after katrina. as for the cost of the storm in terms of human misery and suffering, numbers fail. coming up, the hands of time. this country was built by working people. the economy needs manufacturing. machines, tools, people making stuff. companies have to invest in making things. infrastructure, construction, production. we need it now more than ever. chevron's putting more than $8 billion dollars back in the u.s. economy this year. in pipes, cement, steel, jobs, energy. we need to get the wheels turning. i'm proud of that. making real things... for real. ...that make a real difference. ♪

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>> osgood: if you haven't done so already, fall back. it's time to turn your clocks and watches back one hour to mark the return to standard time. and speaking of watches, watch this. it's an old-fashioned pocket watch keeping good time in our new-fangled times. and from pockets to wrists, it has plenty of company. here's serena altschul. >> reporter: in this digital era, it's understandable to think the wrist watch's time is up. >> you know, only timex can take such a licking and keep on ticking. >> reporter: you might be surprised to learn that the art of watch making is alive and well in pennsylvania. >> one analogy that i use is the brooklyn bridge. it was built during a time, what were they doing with the brooklyn bridge? it was horses pulling carriages over it. >> reporter: watch maker roland murphy meticulously designs each of his hand crafted watches to

stand the test of time. >> imagine if they bit the brooklyn bridge to just carry the heaviest wagon of the time. it wouldn't be standing anymore, would it? basically that's how we build watches. >> reporter: murphy's team pieces are links to the past. his signature watch, the pennsylvania turbion, features technology that was first inventedded by french watch maker abraham brijet in 19th century. murphy makes men's watches by hand, the old-fashioned way, using engraving machines that are a hundred years old. back then, it was considered feminine to wear a wrist watch. men carried pocket watches, like these. on display at the national watch and clock museum in lancaster, pennsylvania. in fact, it took a world war for watches to move to men's wrists.

museum director knoll parier. >> as you get into world war i, you start to see the coordination of activity on the battlefield changing. every man needs to have a time piece. it's impractical if you have a pack and arrival and you're loading to have a to pull out a pocket watch to see if it's time to go over the trench. >> reporter: for nearly a century, wrist watches were an indispensable part of every well dressed man's ensemble. take james bond and his rolex in gold finger. >> it was digital everywhere. nobody really needs a watch. the younger generation, a lot of people don't wear watches. >> reporter: but today in the world of watches, what's old is new again. >> it's one of the very few pieces of jewelry that men can wear. so it's become enormous among affluent men to buy extravagant, complex watches.

>> reporter: swiss watches are often considered the gold standard, a cut above their american counter parts. though it used to be the other way around, according to watch maker and historian renee rondeau. >> ironically in the 19th century, there were somewhat well known for making counterfeit american watches. >> reporter: today if you value your time, you might want to pay greg simonian in beverly hills a visit. he has reason to be careful. the watch he is handling costs almost a million dollars. and simonian says this watch a swiss watch maker has more moving parts than your average car. with the push of a button the watch will actually run slower. why would you want it to run four times slower? >> maybe you're on a date and you're having a good time.

>> reporter: but perhaps wrist watches remind us of a simpler time. >> so many things you go to now. they're prepackaged. they're plastic. >> reporter: which is just fine with roland murphy. >> a watch is one of the few really personal items that you can wear all day long. for some people having something of quality that they can enjoy to have that little mechanical machine on their arm is something people want. ♪ >> osgood: next, a night at the opera. and later, jack black speaks his mind. >> i can't believe i revealed that. >> does that bring back bad memories? >> that's the end of my career.

♪

>> it's sunday morning on cbs and here again is charles osgood. >> osgood: that is deborah voigt of the metropolitan opera singing an opera. even a world class coming attraction is no guarantee that audiences will be coming to the opera house, so the met is going out of its way to take the performance to the audience live where it lives. with anthony mason we take note. >> here we go, guys. stand by. >> reporter: at new york's lincoln center on a saturday afternoon, a small city of stage hands, technicians, musicians, and singers are scrambling to prepare for a broadcast. a broadcast that is part of a grand plan to revive the biggest, most respected opera house in the world. the metropolitan opera.

♪ >> reporter: it's the season debut of the met live in hd. ♪ >> reporter: a performance that isn't just being seen by the 3800 people here in the theater. it's being beamed out live to 1900 movie theaters in all 50 states and 64 countries. this production of the elixir of love stars matthew polanzani. do you like the idea of an audience out there? >> yeah. i mean it's nice to think that we are reaching more people. >> reporter: and one of the most

famous singers in the world. >> nice to meet you. too. reporter: russian soprano. do you like the fact that you're singing to a couple hundred thousand people. >> i think it's very cool. it's beautiful. it's adrenaline. >> reporter: three hours before the broadcast, director gary hall verson is reviewing rehearsal tapes to check his camera angles. >> i've done six or seven seasons. probably 26, 28 operas. >> reporter: he's not an easy man to keep up with. hall verson hassles directed sit-coms like friends and everybody loves raymond, and the macy's thanksgiving day parade. what are you most worried about at this point? we have 15, 20 minutes before the show starts.

>> i'm worried about the actors and the singers hitting their mark and me hitting my mark. >> reporter: the only person who looks more anxious is the met's general manager, peter gelb. who darts between dressing rooms checking on the divas. and across the stage, checking on the production. the met's live transmissions were his idea. what were you thinking? >> i was thinking that opera needs a shot in the arm. the audience was aging. there were fewer people coming to the opera. >> reporter: ten or more cameras are used in each broadcast, including a robotic one that tracks across the foot of the stage. >> i wanted to transform these met transmissions in the movie theaters into the operatic equivalent of olympic sports coverage. >> reporter: you didn't actually have any experience in running an opera house before you came here? >> no, but i've had experience

dealing with a lot of very famous, artistic personalities. >> reporter: gelb had managed the career of renowned pianist and was running the sony classical record label when approached by the met. were you hiredded with the understanding that you would do this? >> no, i was the last candidate i guess interviewed. >> reporter: he spent much of his job interview telling the board what was wrong with the opera house. >> that it was no longer a part of the consciousness of society in any meaningful way, that it was an elitist organization in the perception of the general public and that it was on a downward course. i likenedded the met to an eye owe want that was adrift. what it needed was bridges that would reconnect it to the mainland. >> reporter: were you surprised they hiredded after they said that? >> partly. this stage is the busiest stage probably in the world because it is in constant use.

>> reporter: with 1600 full-time employees, the metropolitan opera is the biggest performing arts company in the country. >> more operas are playing in any given week. there was one in rehearsal on the stage and other operas in rehearsal on sea level which is two levels below the stage. we have scenery that flies up and down. >> reporter: the stage at the metropolitan opera is ten stories high and 150 feet deep. >> this is the back of the stage right here. >> we are now on what's called the rear stage wagon. you can see it's h elevated as well. it was a turn-table embedded in it. >> reporter: the scenery for all these productions is stored in the wings. >> so this is a giant elevator. reporter: and down below. like a giant scenic warehouse. >> reporter: moved on a massive elevator. the met makes most of its own scenery on site. and most of its own costumes. >> there's literally i mean thousands of costumes that pass

through the shop in season. >> reporter: wander its back corridors, and you'll find singers rehearsing the tempest, the mets' dancers preparing for ieada. and the chorus practicing for another opera. making grand operas does not come cheap. it costs nearly a million dollars a day to run the met. and ticket sales cover only half of that. you said this is not a business. >> it's not a business because we don't, you know, we don't generate profits. the profit is art. >> reporter: gelb is artistic director, business manager, and chief fund raiser all in one. he knows if he wants big donors to pay the mets' bills, its opera have to attract some attention. >> not everything i have done

certainly has worked. >> reporter: when he replaced the beloved production of tosca with a more modern interpretation, the critics howled. i think the new yorker called it a fiasco. how did you react to that? >> i take it with a certain grain of salt. >> reporter: it won't stop you from trying. >> it can't because the thing is what the critics should understand is that without trying there's no chance of any future for this institution. if you're not pushing an agenda that looks forward, ultimately you will become swamped with your own history. >> reporter: critics can say what they like, but the met's live broadcasts have been an unqualified success. last season they sold nearly three million tickets. and when the curtain comes down

on this year's debut broadcast, peter gelb looks relieved. >> in opera, you know, anything can happen. today everything went right. we were thrilled. >> reporter: and across the world, nearly 200,000 people were watching. >> osgood: ahead, one president, two hometowns. i invest in what i know. i turned 65 last week. i'm getting married. planning a life. there are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it. i want to be prepared for the long haul. i see a world bursting with opportunities. india, china, brazil, ishares, small-caps, large-caps, ishares. industrials. low cost. every dollar counts. ishares. income. dividends. bonds. i like bonds. ishares. commodities. diversification. choices. my own ideas.

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>> osgood: whatever the outcome this election day, the question will linger. has a man been elected to the u.s. presidency without having been born in the usa? that's a question addressed now by our mo rocca. >> reporter: the rumors persist. was the president actually born in the usa? and if he wasn't, what does that say about president chester allen arthur? who did you think i was talking about? our 21stson tur president chester allen arthur is is remembered as much for his outlandish facial hair as he is for his outlandish facial hair. >> it's really awesome. i would be cutting those off in his sleep. >> reporter: yeah. it's a little much.

but when arthur became president in 1881, the whispers surrounding him were about more than his whiskers. democrats claimed that arthur, a republican, wasn't born in vermont as he maintained but in canada which, according to the constitution, made him ineligible for the oval office. the charge was never proven, but even today there are those who say it's true. >> so this is the birth place of chester a. arthur. 1829. >> reporter: heather says that arthur was born in this modest house in the town of bedford in french-speaking canada. just 15 miles north of the u.s. border. it's not often that a presidential birth place comes up for sale. >> i know. i think americans should come up here and own a piece of americana very easily. >> reporter: -you are fairly convinced that he was born here. >> i am actually. i really do believe that chester

a. arthur was america's first canadian president. >> reporter: okay. this is the research room. reporter: just down the road in the village of stanbridge east, this couple oversees the region's archives. the question of where chester arthur was actually born, this is a good place to come. >> this would be the place to come, yes. >> reporter: this much we know. chester's father william arthur was an itinerant minister and teacher who travel back and forth across the very poorest border. when his son, the future president, was born, this was the school house where chester allen arthur's father was teaching in 1829. >> right. exactly. >> reporter: the year that he was born. >> right. right here in canada. >> exactly. our records indicate that this house has always been known as the white house. >> reporter: ironic. very. reporter: what's more, the family of chester's mother was

living nearby in canada at the time of his birth. >> she already had children so she would have needed someone to look after the children while she was nursing a new baby. so very likely that she went to her mother for help and assistance so, yes, it's very likely that chester was born here. >> reporter: and then there's this. chester allen arthur lied about the year of his birth until the day he died. and he refused to answer questions raised by the birthers of his time. >> if he was born in the states, why was it such a big cover-up? why didn't things just come out into the open? why is it still an issue right now and why is it still a mystery? >> reporter: not surprisingly 30 miles south in fairfield, vermont, the locals at chester's bakery stand by their neighboring same as "made in america." now the people over in quebec that we've spoken to, the canadians say that they know that he was born over there.

>> no. he was born here. we have a pamphlet right in the window that said born in fairfield. >> reporter: well, they have pamphlets in canada. >> they must have lied. reporter: the pamphlets are in french. >> you couldn't read it, right? ours is in english. it says born here in fairfield. >> reporter: we travel down chester arthur road to the chester arthur historic site which used to be called the birth place, to investigate. do you think there's at least a chance that he was born in canada? >> no. well, yes, there is a chance. but i doubt it. >> reporter: john dumbville is in charge of vermont's historic sites. is it possible that chester allen arthur was born in kenya? >> no. come on. >> reporter: fairfield's town clerk, amanda forbes, showed us this record indicating that chester's father william was elected to a local school board months before his son's birth in

1829. this is sort of as good as it gets in terms of evidence. >> right. we don't have any concrete birth certificate. i wish we did but we don't. >> reporter: the truth may be lost to time and to the fact that chester allen arthur burned all of his papers right before he died. what would the average canadian say if he or she found out that chester arthur was actually canadian? >> first we'd have to tell them who he was. >> they probably don't have any idea. >> then they might be pretty thrilled. >> i think they would be pleasedded. >> osgood: pack your

the united states isn't the only country facing a big leadership decision this coming week. a crucial meeting is scheduled in china, one that may affect

the legacy of the regime's bigger than life founder. bill whitaker has filed this sunday journal. >> reporter: a once quiet village in the heart of hunan province is quiet no more. throngs of tourists pure in to visit the birth place of mao. they climb the red carpet to pay homage to his towering statue. mao's hometown erected this statue almost 20 years ago when this country was in the early bloom of its great modernization. now the communist father of the people's republic gazes out at a country he never could have imaginedded. in the shadow of the communist icon, capitalism thrives in all its kitschy glory. mao statues, msm ao pictures, mao generates so much money this once poor village now is well

off. business is better every year, says this statue maker. she could be speaking for her country. in china's business center shanghai the lights grow brighter, the towers taller every year. the economy now is slowing and still the fastest-growing in the world. towering over it all are mao's hares, the leaders of the communist party of china. they meet this week in beijing to anoint the rulers who will steer this country for the next decade. >> clearly to sit in beijing, looking over this country of a billion people, you're going to take over, you better start getting worrieded. >> reporter: this man of mckin a college writes extensively on china. he says the communist party made a bargain with the people following the brutal crushing of student protesters on teenmen square 23 years ago.

>> we will leave you alone economically and you leave us alone. we'll let you make money. but these days this bargain is no longer, what shall i say, effective? >> reporter: along with rising incomes come rising expectations and discontent. there are 500 protests in china every day over pollution, the widening gap between rich and poor. then there's corruption. this artist commissioned portraits of officials convicted of corruption. he has 2,000 so far. another 1 thousand in the works all the color of chinese money. when the "new york times" reportedded the family of premiere had amassd a fortune of almost $3 billion, it was banned from the media and internet here. but when rising party star and acolyte of mao and his wife got caught in a salacious scandal of

murder, money and mystery, it played out like a soap opera. he was expelled from the party, perhaps assigned to the people, the party sees the need for reform especially when you consider this. forbes reports 90 pfers of the 1,000 richest people in china are government officials or mens of the communist party. when the party meets in beijing this week, those will be the delegates filling the seats. many of mao's policies have been left behind by this fast-moving country, not as enduring as this youthful mao chiseled in stone is meant to be. though the young mao would barely recognize it, the party he founded still rules unchallenged. no one talks of changing that. >> the government has lost its credibility. so by reforming how the country is run today, the government is is going to gain back some of its credibility. that is a huge asset for the new

leadership. >> reporter: and if they don't? god help them. god help the chinese people. >> osgood: ahead, abraham lincoln at the movies. >> now, now, now.

osgood: the future course of the presidency is on the ballot this tuesday to be followed later in the week by a movie about a great president from the past. our david edelstein has a review. >> reporter: three score and 13 years ago, our forefathers brought forth henry fonda as young mr. lincoln. a year later, raymond massey as abe lincoln in illinois. the next three score and 11 were pretty lean lincolnwise. apart from cameos and vampire

extravaganzas. now three days after you vote for president comes lincoln, directed by steven spielberg, written by pulitzer prize winning playwright tony curbner starring daniel day lewis as maybe our greatest president. >> blood has been slilt to afford us this moment, now, now, now. >> reporter: a royal pedigree. i'm hardly worthy to review it. but this is is a democracy so... it's terrific! and surprising. it covers only a few months in 1865 from the fall of one of the confederacy's last strongholds to the vote on the 13th amendment to the assassination. see, the emancipation proclamation was an executive order. lincoln needed congress to make blacks permanently equal under the law. >> congress must never declare equal those whom god created

unequal. >> reporter: so it's about politics. the fine and course art of persuasion. >> the same gang of talentless hicks and hacks who rejected the amendment ten months ago. we'll lose. >> i like our chances now. reporter: the film is nuanced, unshowy. true to lincoln. melancholy and sardonic witt and hard scrabble laurie intelligence. you don't feel you know him. few in his time today but you know what it was like to be in his presence. >> what about myself? you maybe. reporter: daniel lewis captures that mysterious sadness and the ability to shake it off and be open and generous and tell long anecdotes at the drop of a stove pipe hat. sally field is very fine as the

wife who fears history will see her as a crazy shrew. but the scenal stealing role goes to tommy lee jones as a belligerent abolitionist congressman, eyes dropping under thick locks toupee. he's visibly tortured softening his views to win over the undecided. but his compromise changes history. lincoln is based on doris kearns goodwin's team of rivals, famously read by barack obama, lincoln brought rivals into the white house. obama drafted hillary clinton. it's no accident lincoln evokes the bruising health care debate. can it be taken as a smack at partisan republicans or a gentle rebuke to a president lacking the lincolnesque wiles to entice his rivals to the table? i have my own thoughts. but either way, it's a lesson in when to compromise and when to go to the end. >> this is a fight for the

united states of america. >> shall we stop this bleeding? reporter: lincoln is more than worshipful. it's inspiring. >> osgood: still to come... a guy can really ask. osgood: ... shirley maclaine likes jack black. will you? >> i couldn't be around her any longary-it just happened. i don't know. >> osgood: and later the children of sandy. that bringing you better technology helps make you a better investor. with our revolutionary e-trade 360 dashboard you see exactly where your money is and what it's doing live. our e-trade pro platform offers powerful functionality that's still so usable you'll actually use it. and our mobile apps are the ultimate

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whatever you put it on... reaches a whole new level of deliciousness. choosy moms choose jif. ♪ come on, now touch me, babe ♪ can't you see that i am not afraid ♪ ♪ >> it's sunday morning on cbs. and here again is charles osgood. >> osgood: jack black playing an out of control substitute teacher in the 2003 film school of rock. he plays a far more serious role in his current film bernie, a role that is receiving critical praise. lee cowan has prepared this sunday profile. >> reporter: he's often a bit disheveled with more rounded features than the chicagoeled ones hollywood so adores. >> yeah, baby, yeah, baby.

reporter: so jack black might seem an unlikely leading man which is is why whispers of a possible oscar nod this year leave him a bit be fuddled. >> like right now when you said that, i got a little flush, a little embarrassed, got a little disoriented. >> reporter: the role everyone is talking about is bernie. >> room service. eporter: it's a seemingly squeaky clean, slightly effiminate funeral director with a love of gospel music. ♪ jesus completely saves >> reporter: i cannot get that out of my head. i keep humming it. >> i like those gospel jams. reporter: it's the true story of bernie, the nicest guy in a small texas town who befriended an angry old widow played by shirley maclaine. >> i'm going to come back some other time. >> go ahead. desert me. just like everybody else. go ahead, go ahead. you hate me.

>> i am not going to take part in this argument. >> you hate me. i know you hate me. >> no, no. everybody hates me. i love mean bitches that are funny. oh, god. it's sort of like what i've earnd the right to be. >> reporter: and she plays it to a t. >> my favorite line in the movie is "there are people in town, honey, that would have shot her for $5." that is so funny. >> reporter: funny in a twisted sort of way because someone did shoot marjorie. bernie did. >> why did you want her dead, bernie? >> i couldn't face being around her any longer. then it just happened. i don't know. i shot her. i shot poor mrs. nugent four times. with the armadillo gun. >> he can act. the guy can really act. >> oh, jesus, no, no, no, what

have i done? >> reporter: the real bernie is serving a life sentence in a texas prison. that's where jack black went to meet him to understand what drove an otherwise kind man to murder. >> did he ever get mad? no. in fact, i think that is really his fatal flaw is that he didn't have a release valve. >> no outlet. reporter: a convicted killer a long way from the comedic role jack black is better known for. like the monk turned mexican wrestler in nacho libre. >> reporter: or the band member turned teacher in "school rock" a role that earned him a golden globe nomination. ♪ if you want to be the teacher ♪ >> reporter: do you sense a leer cal pattern here? there is. music was actually jack black's first love. >> my favorites were ozzie

osborne and bobby mcfairen. i would have liked to have been a hybrid of those two. >> reporter: you heard you went through a billy joel phase. >> we don't have to talk about that phase, do we? >> reporter: not if you don't want to. >> listen, there's no shame in it. he wrote some tasty jams. >> reporter: jack black grew up in california where his parents were both scientists, aerospace engineers to be exact. were you good at math and science? >> not so much. i don't know what happened because both my parents were... my parents-es were real good at math learning. but i didn't inherit that. >> reporter: his music gene was accompanied by a video game gene. in fact that's what led to his first paying gig. a tv commercial for the game pit ball harry. >> just last night i was lost in jungle with pit ball harry. >> reporter: do you remember your line? >> just last night i was lost in the jungle with pit ball harry.

>> reporter: wow. you do remember it. >> you always remember your first gig. >> reporter: he got noticed early on in the film bob roberts. but it didn't lead to anything big. so once again, he turned to music. and he started writing songs with his friend kyle gas for their band called tenacious. >> the first one that we wrote was about a painful break-up i had with a girl in college. >> reporter: it wasn't funny. no. i think it went like this. ♪ at one time i could advise but now i'm lost in my own pain ♪ ♪ so to die another death i can't seem to fall through ♪ ♪ won't you keep me with your breath ♪ oh, god. oh, mid god. i can't believe i revealed that. >> reporter: does that bring back bad memories? >> that's the end of my career. good job pulling out the

darkest, deepest secrets. >> reporter: the band mercifully abandoned the serious love ball adds and decided to focus on satire instead. ♪ we are men >> reporter: the band soon garnered a cult following and the attention of john kusak who cast black as a record store clerk in high fidelity. ♪ now baby, i'm sure >> reporter: his physical comedy stood out. but when he bounced on stage for his big finale performing a marvin gaye classic for the director, his moment was almost lost. >> we did it the first time. i didn't do it with very much confidence. i was a little insecure about my performance. the director said, "cut." he got up on stage. he didn't look at me.

he looked out at the audience and said, what is wrong with you? you've got to have more enthusiasm. and he didn't yell at me but i knew i was yelling at me. >> reporter: so he got his second chance. and then. .. >> and then they said action and i brought the thunder mustard. >> reporter: the thunder mustard indeed. fear of failure, it turned out, was the best lesson of all. >> now i don't even want to do the role if there's no fear because if there's not a little bit of fear, that's the rocket sauce. that's what pushes you to, you know, to go to new places. >> reporter: bernie is certainly a new place for jack black. he seems to have no bigger fan than his veteran costar. >> didn't see him acting in my opinion. in all the other pictures, my god, this is what he does. see how funny i am.

see how outrageous i am. but this was under the radar. ♪ the best in the world >> reporter: from rock anthems. ♪ 76 trombones led the big parade ♪ >> reporter: to broadway show tunes. jack black has won wild ride. >> i read somewhere that you said that you wanted to die on the eve of your 70th birthday. >> i did say that. reporter: why? what i was thinking at the time was you rock in your 20s. you rock in your 30s. you can rock in your 40s. you can rock in your 50s. you can rock in your 60s. i have yet to see someone really rock in their 70s. >> it's a mandatory evacuation, then why aren't we leaving.

>> osgood: coming up, from the mouths of babes.

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>> osgood: coping with sandy's destruction is difficult enough for grown-ups. all the more for kids. steve hartman now with some resilient youngsters and their lessons learned. >> reporter: in the after math of the storm, nothing has mattered more than trying to find a kitten namedded monkey. at least not to 12-year-old casey sullivan of point pleasant beach new jersey. on monday her family had to evacuate without their cat. >> you can't bring pets. everywhere we go. so we had to leave them hoping for the best. >> reporter: that's just one example of the ocean of worry that has swamped so many kids on the coast this week. it started ironically on sunday when parents told their kids not to worry. >> i definitely was like, i don't know who to trust. i don't know if trust you or the weatherman. >> reporter: 11-year-old michaela of margate new jersey says her parents ignore the

mandatory evacuation. >> i was a little scared. i was like it's a mandatory evacuation. then why aren't we leaving. >> reporter: fortunately for them as michaela documented the water peaked just shy of "i told you so." >> pretty much underwater. reporter: a few blocks away, worry didn't strike until the next day when 10-year-old alison doyle went for a walk and saw her neighbor's house much more off than hers. >> it's people's homes. now they don't have their homes. >> reporter: all that worry felt just this deeply. nothing can ease it. but on the positive side, from all this pain, some good theness is emerging. after a week at home without electricity, some kids are actually reporting a renewed appreciation for their moms and dads. >> our family has been together. we are really like talking a lot. >> reporter: you like that? yeah. reporter: for a while it was good. >> yeah, it was good. reporter: the power outage is also generating some change in alison. she's been seriously

reconsidering her electronics attics. >> i think i'll be outside more. reporter: you've rediscovered the outdoors. >> yeah. reporter: most kids we talked to found some silver lining. >> now you know how other people feel when they don't have . >> actually it's changedded me a lot. makes me look at life different and what i have, you know. >> reporter: even casey, the girl with the lost cat. she recently went back to see her house. the place was trashd. but the water stopped just short of the kitchen counter which had turned into a kitchen island. her little kitten namedded monkey. count that as one more survivor and one less thing to worry about. >> do you feel battered? sometimes. osgood: ahead, why this congressman isn't on the ballot. companies used to view us as demographics. because they couldn't see what made people different. today, retailers from the us to japan are using analytics to

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where every cappuccino and latte is made with fresh milk. ♪ and where clothing is optional. nespresso. what else? >> osgood: partisan gridlock has been one of the talking points of this political campaign. enough to spur a drastic decision by the congressman our tracy smith has been talking with. >> americans are screaming for us to take off our red jerseys on this side, to take off the blue jersees on that side and put on the red, white and blue jerseys of the united states of america. >> reporter: he's one of the rarest birds in congress, a

moderate. republican congressman steven la tourette of ohio has servedded nearly nine term and was poised to win a 10th. do you feel battered? >> sometimes. reporter: but instead he is walking away from a place that, in his view, is stuck in the mud. >> the things that were no-brainers when i got here 18 years ago such as transportation bills, student loan bills, we now have to fight about everything. if it becomes a republican bill then the democrats hate it and vice verse a. >> reporter: it's that partisan. there's no common ground. ank you all for coming. reporter: la tourette says he's been a party man all his life. president george w. bush in a term of endearment called him big ugly. but he's been called a lot worse by his fellow republicans. have you been called a traitor? >> oh, sure, yeah. a variety of things. >> reporter: his crime as he sees it was compromise. in a place where people who reach across the aisle sometimes

get their hand slapped... hard. have you been told you're out of line, you need to tow the line. >> all the time. i had more whip marks from the whip on my back than most people here. now you're not only getting shot at by the democrats but you're getting shot by your own team. you're taking friendly fire on this whole notion that you're not a good enough republican. you're not a good enough democrat. that really wears you down. >> reporter: a former prosecutor from lake county, ohio, la tourette won his seat in the great g.o.p. tidal wave of '94. but he wasn't afraid to break ranks with fellow republicans like a vote against defunding national public radio and a vote for a measure that would raise taxes. >> there it is. who? what? >> the capitol dome. yes, sir. big as life. been there a long time now. >> reporter: jimmy stewart's mr. smith went to washington as a wide-eyed innocent who was

undone by a political machine. >> i guess this is just another lost cause, mr. pain. >> reporter: were you jimmy stewart? >> no. reporter: were you wide-eyed coming in thinking i can make a difference? >> i couldn't find it, no. i couldn't find the bathroom here. >> reporter: but he did have a mr. smith moment of his own this year. >> if not now, when? if not this, what? >> reporter: when he cosponsored a tough love budget plan with a democratic colleague that would slash spending and raise taxes. it looked like a winner at first. wait. just to clarify. you had more than 100 members who said we support you. >> absolutely. we had 100 members show up at a press conference endorsing the plan. we had 100 members sign a letter saying this was the way to go, that we needed to get the big deal. >> reporter: what happened to them? >> i have to tell you what happened. what happened is is the horses on the left and the right began flooding their offices with emails and phone calls and faxes. that makes people nervous. and so that number shall rank

and shall rank. >> reporter: in end only 38 voted with him. in la tourette's view his political goose was cooked. are you somehow tainted because you offered this compromise and it didn't work out? >> i think my brand is damagedded. in terms of being effective enough to do the things that need to be done here and get 218 votes. i don't think i have that ability. >> reporter: but that does sound like you went to the playground and people didn't play with you. you said, fine, and you threw down your toys and you went home. >> it sounds like that but to me at least -- and people can say, well, you're a quitter. i'll tell you that again every snoovment day in you're in that job you have to balance the personal cost against what you can do. >> reporter: for the married father of six, just being in washington for 18 years took a toll. >> i always love it when i turn on the tv and they say congress is going home for a three-month vacation. that's a bunch of crap. i mean, we work from the sun comes up until the time the sun

goes down. it doesn't matter whether it's here in washington or back in our districts. that's time away from soccer games, recitals, ballet. >> reporter: so the gentleman from ohio says congress can bicker on. >> the house shall stand in recess for not more than 15 minutes. >> reporter: without him. it's a pox on both houses, both parties. they need to say, you know what? this is dysfunctional. i mean, if this was a family, we'd be in a psychiatric hospital because we are just not getting along in the way that we have to. >> reporter: so what are you going to do now? >> i don't know yet. but i'm only 58. i have to get a job. if cbs is hiring, call me.

>> osgood: here's a look at the week ahead from our sunday morning calendar. tuesday, of course, is election

day. wednesday sees the opening in new york of rolling stone's 50 photographic exhibition marking the 50th anniversary of the rolling stones. on thursday, a man is scheduled to be sentenced for last year's shooting in dueson that took six lives and seriously wounded gabby giffords and 12 other people. on friday, bond, james bond will be back at the 23rd bond film sky fall is released here. and saturday has been declared malala and the 32 million girls day in support of the 15-year-old who was shot and wounded in pakistan last month after campaigning for education for girls. that's a look at the week ahead. now to bob scheiffer in washington for a look at what's ahead on "face the nation. "good morning, bob. >> schieffer: good morning, charles. it's all coming down to the battle ground states.

we'll have the latest from the experts on where they think the campaign and the election stands on this final weekend. >> schieffer: thank you, bob scheiffer. we'll be watching. next week here on sunday morning... >> i do love being a grandmother. >> osgood: mo rocca talks with actress sally fields. insuran, we understand that commitment. so does aarp, serving americans 50 and over for generations. so it's no surprise millions have chosen an aarp dicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, it helps cover some of what medicare doesn't pay. to find out more, call today. [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong, and the optics industry in germany?

at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. >> sunday morning's moment of nature is sponsored by... >> osgood: we leave you this sunday in northern arizona with a look at fall foliage in oak creek canyon.

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